‘This Is Us’ Fans Are Theorizing About When Kate & Toby Will Split Up

This Is Us.
Photo: NBC.

This Is Us loves to keep fans on the edge of their seats. Season 4 has already thrown a lot at viewers, with their glimpses into the future. This Is Us Season 4 Toby and Kate divorce theories have us shook. *Spoilers of NBC’s hit drama ahead.* We now know Randall and Beth are still together, Kevin has a son, and Toby and Kate are—ugh!—divorced. Truly heartbreaking. But going into Season 4, we did know that Toby was struggling with depressive streaks. He’s also in the habit of making some decisions that don’t serve his long term health, like going off of his medication. For now, it seems the combination of Kate’s pregnancy and staying on his meds has helped Toby stabilize. He’s in a good place right now, but unfortunately, it is possible his disease will regain a grip on him at some point.

So what do we know about his status in the future timeline? Well, it appears Toby lives alone. We see his left hand and he is no longer wearing a wedding band. When Toby gets to Kevin’s house to visit Rebecca, it takes a moment to acknowledge the size and magnitude of the home. His surprise suggests he hasn’t ever been to their house before. Randall also seems extremely pleased to see Toby, which makes it seem like they weren’t sure he’d make an appearance. Last but not least, he and Kate both arrive separately. Because of all of these clues, fans are positive that Toby and Kate are either fully divorced or in a long-term separation.

The couple has been hitting a few roadblocks this season. Fans are particularly disturbed by the fight Kate and Toby had over his weight loss.

Some fans are playing devil’s advocate, saying Toby could’ve, and maybe should’ve, told his wife where he was going.

Unfortunately, it appears Toby’s fascination with Crossfit is a sign of an uneven foundation. Toby is moving in one direction while Kate is off in another. Having a baby can also create quite a strain on parents, especially when there are some cracks in the foundation. The dinner that took place in Episode 3, “Unhinged,” is definitely a look into some of their underlying issues. Kate seems deeply uncomfortable with the group, and it’s clear that she and Toby are not on the same page about what makes them happy.

So it appears This Is Us is laying the groundwork for a relationship that is slowly unraveling. It may not be apparent to the couple right now, but we definitely know it’s coming.

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