The Oscars aka James Francos latest performance art project are upon us, and this years race, to my mind, is far more interesting than last years rather bland Avatar vs. Hurt Locker nail-biter. In many categories, we have what amounts to a thematic battle between classic quality versus new freshness Its old school vs. new school, past vs. present, history vs. more recent history. There are quality films on both sides, so it will be very interesting to see what direction the Academy sets for this year, and while there appears to be some solid frontrunners in a few categories, I tend to believe that there will be a few big surprises come Sunday night. Here are my predictions for how the awards will shake out.??
BEST PICTURE?
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Fighter
True Grit
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours
Winter’s Bone
WINNER: The Social Network
This year’s best picture race is a tough call with a couple of dark horses (True Grit, The Fighter) and a bunch of other films that are just happy to be there, the frontrunners this year are obviously The Kings Speech and The Social Network. Between the two, The King’s Speech is a more classically perfect piece of storytelling, and would be the clear choice for Academy members wanting to adhere to solid classicism over youth and flash. But, while most people are predicting The King’s Speech for the win, Im going say that it’ll be The Social Network. Why? The Social Network feels like the film of the moment, and if the Academy wants to seem cool, they wouldnt want to pass up the opportunity to anoint it as such. It feels like a film for now and for the future, and in many ways The Kings Speech (which I personally loved) already feels like it belongs to the past. And given recent winners such as The Departed, No Country for Old Men, and Slumdog Millionaire there seems to be a growing trend that the Oscars are going for hipper, more youth-appealing fair. That said, the Oscars have a long history of proving themselves to be horrendously out of touch with the current zeitgeist, so you never know. But still, Id be surprised if The Social Network didnt pull off a minor upset.
BEST DIRECTOR
The Social Network, David Fincher
The King’s Speech, Tom Hooper?
The Fighter, David O. Russell ?
True Grit, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen ?
Black Swan, Darren Aronofsky ?
WINNER: David Fincher
I feel like the odds are probably with Tom Hooper for The Kings Speech, as he won the DGA award (which usually predicts the Oscar winner), but I still cant shake the feeling that David Fincher and The Social Network will take this one as well. Fincher has been making exciting, highly acclaimed movies for years and has solidified his place in the industry as a director who is able to make films that are popular with both critics and audiences in general. Plus, the film is a bigger directorial showcase, a more varied canvas with a stunning variety of aesthetic techniques on display, as well as stellar acting all benchmarks of quality directing. But about the acting
BEST ACTOR?
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
WINNER: Colin Firth
I think the Academy will go with Firth, whose nuanced and vulnerable performance is the kind of acting that actors themselves respect tremendously. Eisenberg seems to be the next in line for his fantastic portrayal of Mark Zuckerberg, however the Best Actor award normally doesnt go to such a youngster, but to a more established actor who has been around a bit longer. In that case, it seems like a race between Firth and Bridges, and Bridges won last year two in a row would be a sensational feat that doesnt seem possible with True Grits overall lack of momentum.??
BEST ACTRESS?
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
WINNER: Natalie Portman
Portman seems to be the clear choice for Best Actress. Bening could pull an upset, as she is widely respected and turned in a fantastic performance, but it feels like Portman’s year, and she is exactly the kind of actress the Academy loves to award beautiful, popular, around for a while but still seems fresh. Plus she turned in a grueling, highly demanding and dramatically meaty performance where she occasionally looked unglamorous.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone 50/1?
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Jeremy Renner, The Town
WINNER: Christian Bale
This is a tougher call. While my gut says Bale, my analytical mind says Rush. He turns in a pitch-perfect performance in The Kings Speech, and the Academy often loves an older journeyman to win this category though not in recent years, which bodes well for Bale. And Bales performance in The Fighter is the kind of supporting performance that stands out to voters he anchors the film, and is dramatically and emotionally more interesting than the lead. Plus he lost all that weight, and they love stuff like that.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS?
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
WINNER: Hailee Steinfeld
While there is a strong chance that Melissa Leo will win for her great work in The Fighter, Im gonna go with Steinfeld for True Grit. She is basically (no, actually) the lead of the film, and gives an amazingly mature, entirely captivating performance where she is able to dominate a film in the midst of stellar work from Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon. Also, there is much precedent for this category to go to a fresh-faced, less established nominee (Ana Paquin, Marisa Tomei, Jennifer Hudson, Monique).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
WINNER: The Social Network
The Social Network is the clear favorite here. If it doesnt win that would be a major surprise. And what exactly is Toy Story 3 an adaptation of???
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY?
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
WINNER: The Kings Speech
This has long been considered an underdogs category, where the Academy honors a film that everyone knows is great, but lacks the weight to win in the other major categories. If that holds true this year, The Kids Are Alright has a chance, but in reality there is little doubt that this years behemoth The Kings Speech will win here.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY?
Black Swan, Matthew Libatique
Inception, Wally Pfister
The King’s Speech, Danny Cohen?
The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit, Roger Deakins
WINNER: True Grit, Roger Deakins
An interesting mix of styles in this category, from the rough, gritty verite of Black Swan to the sleek polish of Inception. But, Roger Deakins work for True Grit is beautiful, classic image-making, and hes a hugely respected giant in his field who been nominated (without winning) so many times Ive lost count.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE?
Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
WINNER: Inside Job
With this years documentary nominees it seems like the big question is less about who will win, and more about whether Banksy show up if Exit Through the Gift Shop wins. That curiosity alone might get it some votes, but the doc category is historically a place where the film dealing with the most socially-important topic takes it, and that is a hard thing for Banksys genuinely entertaining (and thought provoking) film to overcome. From the other nominees, it looks as if the riveting and relevant Inside Job is the likely winner.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM?
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)
WINNER: Incendies
Like the documentary category, voting for best foreign language film is restricted only to members who have viewed all the nominated films theatrically. That makes for some occasional upsets, where popular predictions are often proven wrong (like Japanese film Departures won before anyone here had even heard of it). Its also a place where the Academys usually more conservative taste emerges. That said, this category is quite hard to predict, but there has been steady festival buzz surrounding Incendies. The only sure bet here is that the bizarre and amazing Greek entry Dogtooth has absolutely no shot at winning.
