To you wine lovers out there, you might want to sit down. According to new Morgan Stanley research, there is a possible wine shortage looming. Because of the growing demand from Chinese and American shoppers and a fall in production, the price of wine could shoot up.
Wine production peaked in 2004 with an excess of 600 million cases, but since, supply has fallen, particularly because production in Europe is now 10 percent lower than it was in 2005. Bad weather conditions are also reportedly playing a role.
At the same time global demand for wine has only grown. According to the study, last year demand outstripped supply by 300 million cases, and things are only expected to get worse. “Data suggests there may be insufficient supply to meet demand in coming years, as current vintages are released,” the report said.
The global wine industry now takes in revenue of $30 billion. New wine hubs such as Australia, New Zealand, Chile, and Argentina now account for 30 percent of global wine exports, compared to just 3 percent in the early 1980s. These are the producers in the best position to benefit from the gap between supply and demand and will be able to raise export prices, Morgan Stanley said.
Still not everyone is convinced that this shortage will trickle down to the consumer in any actual way. Stacy Finz wrote in SF Gate: “Analysts say wine production has actually increased significantly and consumption is stabilizing. In fact, California’s harvest is expected to reach 4 million tons, nearing last year’s record.”
Still, we wouldn’t blame you for running out to liquor now to stock up. You know, just in case.
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